the main points
- The EUR/USD hit hurdles near 1.1350 and fell below 1.1250.
- The main bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.1280 on the 4 hours chart.
- GBP/USD appears to be struggling near the 1.2500 resistance area.
- Eurozone consumer confidence is likely to remain flat at -14.7 in June 2020.
Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair
Last week, the euro tried to surpass the 1.1350 resistance level against the US dollar, but failed. The EUR/USD pair fell below 1.1250 and is currently showing bearish signs.
Looking at the 4 hours chart, the pair traded as high as 1.1348 before diving below the 100 SMA (red, 4 hours). There was a break below the 50% Fibo retracement level of the upward move from 1.1168 to 1.1348.
It appears that there is a major descending trend line forming with the resistance near 1.1280. And to move into positive territory, the pair must break the trend line and settle above the 100 SMA.
On the contrary, there is a risk of further losses below 1.1160 and 1.1150 support levels. The next critical support is near the 1.1125 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). It is close to the 1.236 Fibonacci level of the upward movement from the bottom of 1.1168 to the top of 1.1348.
If the pair breaks the support 1.1150 and gets bearish momentum below 1.1125, it may decline sharply in the upcoming sessions.
In general, the EUR/USD is still at risk of further losses if it breaks 1.1150 and 1.1125. If not, it may recover well and start a new increase above 1.1130. Looking at GBP/USD, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 1.2500 level.
Upcoming economic releases
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence June 2020 - Forecast -14.7, vs. -14.7 previous.
- German CPI June 2020 (YoY) - Forecast +0.6%, vs. +0.6% previous.
- German CPI June 2020 (MoM) - Forecast +0.3%, vs -0.1% previous.
- US Pending Home Sales May 2020 (YoY) - Forecast -44.6%, vs. -33.8% previous.